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It is impossible to discuss a future role
of the United States of America in the world without understanding the global
processes that have been taken place in the world over the last several years.
September 11, without doubt, was a break point event in these processes. First,
it showed people a danger of an international terrorism. Second, the event
brought about a confrontation between two different viewpoints on the
development of world politics. On the one hand, politicians from many countries
believe that any active actions to preserve world order must be organized only
by United Nations. On the other hand, the United States is pushing forward its
aggressive unilateral policy that is based only on Washington’s (sometimes
biased) understanding of the current international situation. This US strategy was clearly demonstrated
in Iraq. Now, after two and a half years of the war, the question must be asked
if this policy achieved its goals. Did it bring a peace and stabilization in
the post Sadam country? Yes, the military operation itself was a success.
Actually, it was difficult to imagine any other result of that war considering
that the conflict was between a mighty US and Iraq, a third level military
power. Despite the military successes, this strategy did not produce desirable
results. The USA cannot stabilize the situation, and the Iraqis continue to
organize attacks against the US and coalition forces. May be the USA had another reason to
start the war? Some people (in Russia,
anyway) believe that a real goal of US policy in the Middle East is to take
under control a so-called the world’s hydrocarbon ellipse. It is obvious, that
a power controlling that region would become a master of the world in this
century. Now, the USA is in much less favorable economical position than some
other countries (potential America’s enemies). So, the US efforts to extend its
influence over that area are an attempt to liquidate this imbalance once and
for all. But this goal could hardly be achieved by
military means. If the USA decided to occupy some other states in that area,
they would surely face a guerrilla resistance, like in Iraq and Afganistan.
History proved that the only way to suppress insurgency is a policy of mass
terror, and I doubt that America will ever use it. The attempts to organize
puppet democratic governments will fail too. Such regimes will be hated by the
general population and overthrown as soon as US army leaves the country. By the way, why did Bush’s administration
decide to occupy a sovereign country to fight international terrorism? What is
the connection between an organized group of criminals and an independent
state? Why not occupy Italy to fight the Italian Mafia? I think that a Washington’s current
unilateral policy is useless and even dangerous. It is increased a general
instability in the World. Iraq became a place that attracts terrorism from all
over the globe. The wave of anti-Americanism grew up in the world, even in
Western Europe, a traditional ally of the United States. The danger of a
terrorist attack on the territory of the United States is even higher than
itwas before the Iraq war. It seems that the only purpose of US actions is to
remain the world’s single superpower by any means. I
believe that the USA will not be able to continue its unilateral policy anymore
because it goes against objective processes in the world economy and
international relations. First of these processes is globalization that does
make the world more and more interconnected and interdependent place. Another
factor is a steady development of a multipolar world. I doubt that China would
joint a unipolar structure and be obedient to US decisions. The EU would become
another world’s center of power. The political regimes in European countries
are very close to American, so any military confrontations are very unlikely at
this point. But an economical competition would be intense. I would say that
the other war, between the euro and the dollar, is already on, and the dollar
is loosing so far. There is another potential threat to the
USA. Only a few years ago, a dollar was almost equivalent to gold. People and
businesses all over the world tried to keep their savings in dollars. A huge
amount of American currency was accumulated in foreign countries. Now, when a
dollar is getting cheaper, many try to get rid of it and buy euros. What would
happen if all this dollar cash came back to the USA? India, Japan, and Russia
will probably also try to make their influence on the world politics comparable
with their economical potential. Also, it is possible that the USA will
return to the policy of partial isolationism to concentrate on its own
problems. First, US troops should be withdrawn from Iraq. This action will
greatly destabilize the situation in the Middle East, and Iraq, probably, will
become a new center of Islamic fundamentalism. Islamic radicals will increase
their activity and the situation will become very dangerous for many countries,
but not for the USA. The terrorists simply could not reach the United States.
It will be a real danger for the EU and Russia, American adversaries. In Russia
the war could spread from Chechnya to the whole Caucasus region. In European
countries the danger of terrorist acts would increase dramatically. Of course
it would be terrible act (an immediate withdrawing of the troops) from a moral
point of view, but the States have already shown several times that they care
only about their own interests. Money and troops released after the war
would be used to protect borders. The threat of terrorist attack using a weapon
of mass distraction is real, and the open boarders are the easiest way to get
in the States. Boarders should be guarded not by overweight volunteers gathering
around an American flag, but by elite troops. Some funds would be used to
improve security services; I think they need more informers. The terrorists can
strike only from inside of the United States. That is why the only way to fight
them is to put everything in order in your own country. In conclusion, no one can say how the
world will look like even in the nearest future; we can only predict. One thing
is clear, however, the future of the country directly depends on today’s policy. | |
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